Raleigh-Durham Poised for Another Year of Strong Growth

Economic momentum continues to build throughout the Raleigh-Durham region. Even as growth has ramped up nationwide, the Triangle region remains one of the fastest-growing areas in the country. National real GDP growth will likely end 2018 at 2.9%, backed by robust consumer spending and fiscal stimulus. We anticipate growth to moderate slightly to a still-solid 2.6% rate in 2019, as some of these tailwinds fade. The Raleigh-Durham area will continue to play a starring role in the national economic growth story, given the area’s booming tech and life sciences clusters which continue to attract new businesses and residents to the area. Raleigh ranks as the 8th fastest growing major metropolitan area in terms of real GDP growth from 2011 to 2017. The combined statistical area has added 240,000 residents during this period, lifting its population to 2.2 million. The region’s economic success is most clearly evident in the Triangle’s labor market. Both the Raleigh-Cary and Durham-Chapel Hill metro areas have seen their unemployment rates fall over the course of the past year and now sit well below the national rate at 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively. This comes as no surprise as the region has also been adding jobs at a pace well above the rest of the country. As of November, Raleigh payrolls have surged 3.2% year-over-year, propelled in large part by a booming tech industry. Job growth in Durham was slightly more moderate, but still grew 2.0%, which is ahead of the 1.7% growth seen nationwide. We suspect Durham’s slightly more modest expansion may also be underestimating growth. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is a more complete accounting of payrolls and lags the monthly survey data by six months, shows significantly stronger job growth in Durham’s key education & health and professional & business services sectors, suggesting the preliminary estimates of job growth will be revised higher to a rate more consistent with neighboring Raleigh. Furthermore, overall employment growth in both metro areas has accelerated more recently, making the prospects for growth throughout 2019 increasingly bright.

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Source: Wells Fargo Economics Group

Charlotte job growth continues it’s growth trajectory

CHARLOTTE — Amazon nixed Charlotte’s $270 million economic incentives package, snubbing the Queen City in the process.  But with the announcement of four major economic development initiatives in the past four weeks that are set to add as many as 2,715 good paying jobs to the economy, the Queen City intends to cultivate a strong workforce to attract and retain companies and skilled individuals.

Companies expand in locations where they can either find talent or attract talent to join the region, said Tracy Dodson, assistant city manager for the City of Charlotte.

“If you build a great city, and you build a great region, you attract the talent and you retain the talent,” said Dodson.  “When there’s a city within a region where people want to live, companies can thrive, and their employees can thrive.”

And Charlotte appears to be attracting and retaining talent, with the region growing at nearly 14 percent since 2010, ranking among the top 35 fastest-growing cities by population in 2017 by the U.S. Census Bureau.

That’s more than 300,000 people that have relocated to Charlotte in seven years, and the Queen City nets roughly 60 new residents per day.  And that’s good for Charlotte, said Dodson, and good for companies that are expanding or looking to relocate to the region.

“People want to be here,” said Dodson.  “We’re trying to leverage that with companies.”

Full article HERE

Source: WRAL Tech Wire

Raleigh (#10) and Charlotte (#26) Rank in the Top 50 Best Places to Live in the US by USA Today

As the land of opportunity, the United States has attracted people from around the world for centuries. Yet not all parts of the country are equally desirable, and some cities are far more livable than others.

On an individual level, subjective measures often override other, more objective, considerations. Sometimes, we live in a place simply because it is where we grew up — it is familiar and where we feel at ease. Still, a range of factors can help compare U.S. cities objectively. Low crime, a healthy economy and affordability are just a few examples of universally desirable attributes in any community.

24/7 Wall St. created an index of over three dozen socioeconomic measures to identify the 50 best American cities to live in. The most livable cities span the country — from the Deep South to New England and from the Mid-Atlantic to the Pacific Northwest.

Full List HERE

Source: USA Today

Apartment Vacancy Rates Expected To Increase More Slowly Than Expected

McLEAN, VA–Nothing, it seems, can dent the growth story that is multifamily. Despite a pipeline that is expected to peak in the second half of this year and remain elevated into 2018, Freddie Mac believes that while vacancy rates will increase, they will do so more slowly than expected. “Employment growth is expected to remain near 2016 growth levels and demand for multifamily units to stay strong due to lifestyle preferences and demographic trends,” it explains in its mid-year outlook for the category.

Indeed, forecasts of higher wage growth is expected to spur even more housing demand, it said.

The sum of these trends is that vacancy rates for the rest of 2017 have been revised downward to 4.7%. Meanwhile rent growth is expected to remain strong for the remainder of the year, possibly exceeding the 2016 rate, it said.

Full Article HERE

Source:  Globest.com

BlackRock: Make Room For Real Estate?!?!

March 20, 2017

U.S. commercial real estate has recovered, but the asset class could offer more growth amid reflation. This week on BlackRock‘s (BLK) global weekly commentary, Richard Turnill, global chief investment strategist, makes the case.

Property prices have returned to 2008 highs, but there are differences between then and now, says Turnill. For one, real estate development activity is lower and access to credit tighter. Valuations based on ratios of operating income to property values relative to the 10-year U.S. Treasuries are in the vicinity of the 20-year average.

In past rising rate cycles, strong rental income supported U.S. real estate returns, especially during gradual rate-hike environments. Turnill says: 

We see U.S. commercial real estate delivering attractive total returns over the next few years in a low-return world. We expect capital appreciation to slow but see operating income growth due to the reflationary backdrop and the potential for property managers to add value by upgrading buildings. Average yields of 3.5% are competitive with 3.4% for U.S. investment grade and an S&P 500 dividend yield of 2%. Demand is strong: Nearly half of institutions in our most recent Global Institutional Rebalancing Survey intended to raise allocations to real estate this year.

Full Article HERE

Source: Barron's